{"id":43398,"date":"2022-09-20T14:12:43","date_gmt":"2022-09-20T14:12:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.africanchallenges.com\/?p=43398"},"modified":"2022-09-20T14:13:11","modified_gmt":"2022-09-20T14:13:11","slug":"la-banque-mondiale-craint-une-recession-generale-similaire-au-debut-des-annees-1980","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.africanchallenges.com\/?p=43398","title":{"rendered":"La Banque mondiale  craint une \u00ab\u00a0r\u00e9cession g\u00e9n\u00e9rale\u00a0\u00bb similaire au d\u00e9but des ann\u00e9es 1980"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Les politiques mon\u00e9taires restrictives engag\u00e9es par les banques centrales pour contenir les pressions inflationnistes pourraient aboutir \u00e0 ralentissement suppl\u00e9mentaire de la croissance mondiale d\u00e8s 2023.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La politique coordonn\u00e9e de rel\u00e8vement des taux d&rsquo;int\u00e9r\u00eat dans laquelle se sont engag\u00e9es les banques centrales du monde entier pour tenter de juguler l\u2019inflation, risque de provoquer une r\u00e9cession g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9e semblable \u00e0 celle qui s\u2019est produite au d\u00e9but des ann\u00e9es 80, a estim\u00e9 la Banque mondiale dans une \u00e9tude publi\u00e9e jeudi 15 septembre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00ab&nbsp;<em>L&rsquo;\u00e9conomie mondiale est au milieu de l&rsquo;un des \u00e9pisodes de resserrement des politiques mon\u00e9taire et budg\u00e9taire les plus synchrones au niveau international des cinq derni\u00e8res d\u00e9cennies<\/em>&nbsp;\u00bb, a relev\u00e9 l\u2019institution financi\u00e8re.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bien que les taux directeurs des banques centrales aient augment\u00e9 de 2% en moyenne \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle plan\u00e9taire par rapport \u00e0 2021, la Banque mondiale consid\u00e8re qu\u2019une hausse au moins \u00e9quivalente pourrait \u00eatre encore n\u00e9cessaire pour ramener l&rsquo;inflation vers les objectifs envisag\u00e9s. La Banque centrale europ\u00e9enne (BCE) et la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale am\u00e9ricaine (Fed) se sont fix\u00e9 pour objectif de ramener l&rsquo;inflation \u00e0 2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mais une telle option risque d&rsquo;entra\u00eener un nouveau ralentissement de l&rsquo;activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique mondiale, avec une croissance de seulement 0,5% en 2023, ce qui correspondrait techniquement \u00e0 une r\u00e9cession et \u00e0 une contraction de 0,4% du PIB par habitant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00ab&nbsp;<em>La croissance mondiale ralentit fortement, et un ralentissement suppl\u00e9mentaire est probable \u00e0 mesure que davantage de pays entrent en r\u00e9cession. Ma profonde inqui\u00e9tude est que ces tendances se maintiennent, avec des cons\u00e9quences durables, d\u00e9vastatrices pour les populations des march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents et des \u00e9conomies en d\u00e9veloppement<\/em>&nbsp;\u00bb, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 le pr\u00e9sident de la Banque mondiale, David Malpass (photo).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u00ab&nbsp;Il y a six mois, nos craintes concernaient un ralentissement de la reprise et une hausse temporaire des prix. D\u00e9sormais, nous craignons une stagflation g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9e qui r\u00e9veillerait de bien mauvais souvenirs<\/em>&nbsp;\u00bb, a comment\u00e9 de son c\u00f4t\u00e9 le chef \u00e9conomiste de l\u2019institution financi\u00e8re multilat\u00e9rale, Indermit Gill.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pour la Banque mondiale, les politiques mon\u00e9taires restrictives actuelles ressemblent \u00e0 celles intervenues avant la r\u00e9cession de 1982. \u00c0 l\u2019\u00e9poque, la politique de rel\u00e8vement des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat engag\u00e9e par les banques centrales a r\u00e9duit l\u2019inflation galopante, mais elle a aussi engendr\u00e9 une forte r\u00e9cession et une augmentation du ch\u00f4mage dans de nombreux pays, y compris dans les pays \u00e9mergents et en d\u00e9veloppement. En 1982, le PIB\/habitant des pays industrialis\u00e9s a plong\u00e9 d&rsquo;environ 2%, et celui des pays \u00e9mergents et en d\u00e9veloppement a recul\u00e9 de 1,2%, engendrant une quarantaine de crises de la dette et une d\u00e9cennie de perte de croissance dans de nombreuses \u00e9conomies en d\u00e9veloppement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Lire aussi:<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Les politiques mon\u00e9taires restrictives engag\u00e9es par les banques centrales pour contenir les pressions inflationnistes pourraient aboutir \u00e0 ralentissement suppl\u00e9mentaire de la croissance mondiale d\u00e8s 2023. La politique coordonn\u00e9e de rel\u00e8vement des taux d&rsquo;int\u00e9r\u00eat dans laquelle se sont engag\u00e9es les banques centrales du monde entier pour tenter de juguler l\u2019inflation, risque de provoquer une r\u00e9cession g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9e [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":2260,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"subtitle":"","format":"standard","video":"","gallery":"","source_name":"","source_url":"","via_name":"","via_url":"","override_template":"0","override":[{"template":"1","single_blog_custom":"","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"1","layout":"right-sidebar","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"top","share_float_style":"share-monocrhome","show_share_counter":"1","show_view_counter":"1","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"1","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"Y\/m\/d","show_post_category":"1","show_post_reading_time":"0","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","show_zoom_button":"0","zoom_button_out_step":"2","zoom_button_in_step":"3","show_post_tag":"1","show_prev_next_post":"1","show_popup_post":"1","number_popup_post":"1","show_author_box":"0","show_post_related":"0","show_inline_post_related":"0"}],"override_image_size":"0","image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-500","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post":"0","trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post":"0","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","sponsored_post_name":"","sponsored_post_url":"","sponsored_post_logo_enable":"0","sponsored_post_logo":"","sponsored_post_desc":"","disable_ad":"0"},"jnews_primary_category":{"id":""},"jnews_override_bookmark_settings":[],"jnews_review":[],"enable_review":"","type":"","name":"","summary":"","brand":"","sku":"","good":[],"bad":[],"score_override":"","override_value":"","rating":[],"price":[],"jnews_post_split":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[43,73],"tags":[784,6033,9087,9086],"class_list":["post-43398","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-eco-business","category-eco","tag-croissance-mondiale","tag-la-banque-mondiale","tag-ralentissement","tag-recession-generale"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.africanchallenges.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43398","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.africanchallenges.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.africanchallenges.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.africanchallenges.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.africanchallenges.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=43398"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.africanchallenges.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43398\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":43399,"href":"https:\/\/www.africanchallenges.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43398\/revisions\/43399"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.africanchallenges.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2260"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.africanchallenges.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=43398"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.africanchallenges.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=43398"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.africanchallenges.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=43398"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}